South Bay-Beach Cities Real Estate/ Homes for Sale

Manhattan Beach: Second Quarter Sales... January-June 2007-2009

Ercoles.. the oldest restaurant in Manhattan Beach

As I noted a few months ago when I posted the First Quarter Sales figures for Manhattan Beach this will become a regular feature every quarter. I've been tracking so many different numbers over the last few days that I'm seeing numbers everywhere and even find myself dreaming about median price and price per square foot.

We all know that statistics can take on a life of their own. When viewing our local Manhattan Beach real estate market , the numbers tell their own tale. If you look at the numbers on a month by month basis things look pretty bad. While still dismal, when viewed over time, a pattern begins to emerge showing that the number of sales, while significantly lower then those in 2007, have been fairly stable over the last two years.

The volume of sales is down about 40% from 2007 and roughly 16% from 2008 for the first part of the year. The kicker in the deck is prices. Between the first 6 months of 2007 and the same period of 2008 prices were down less then 5% but this year is a different story. Since the begining of the year home prices have dropped about 17% compared to the same period last year. There were 75 homes that sold from January to June 2009. Of those 75 homes, 60 of them had at least one price reduction before finding a buyer, 4 were sold over the list price and 11 appear to have sold at the listed price.

There is more going on now then these number show. Currently there are 150 homes for sale in Manhattan Beach. Inventory has dropped dramatically because homes are selling.... the big question is what is selling. There are 81 properties pending...67 homes and 14 townhomes. The median asking price for homes that are in escrow is $1,575,000 and for townhomes it is $1,194,000. The median sold price for homes in June was $ 1, 402,500 and $1,217,000 for townhomes.. But.... the median list price for homes that are for sale is $2,349,500 and $1,364,000 for townhomes.

Herein lies the problem with our current market. Of the 150 homes for sale only 65( less then half) are priced under $2,000,000. There is very little demand for homes priced over $2,000,000 for a number of reasons, but mainly because of financing. While we have our share of buyers with some big bucks... they are not in the majority. Most buyers looking in Manhattan Beach today have 30%-50% cash needed for a down payment on a home under $2.5 but they still need some type of bank financing. There are lenders offering loans over $1.5 but most lenders really don't want to make loans over that number. So I'm thinking that one of two things will happpen... either these higher end homes will be taken off the market or you are going to see some very hefty price reductions in the future. I also think you are going to see an increase in owner financing to bridge the gap.

Manhattan Beach: Sold January-June 2007-2009(click on graph to enlarge)

Manhattan Beach: Sold April-June 2007-2009

Manhattan Beach: Sold West of Sepulveda January-June 2007-2009

Manhattan Beach: Sold West of Sepulveda April-June 2007-2009

Manhattan Beach: Sold East of Sepulveda January-June 2007-2009

Manhattan Beach: Sold East of Sepulveda April-June 2007-2009

South Bay-Beach Cities: July 4th Fun!

The Rose Bowl will host their 83rd annual celebration

July 4th Event in the South Bay-Beach Cities:

El Segundo:

Plan a day of fun in El Segundo with two events.. 10:00 am-2:00 pm Rec Park 5:00 pm -9:00 pm 300 and 400 block of Eucalyptus Lots of games and food and live music 9:00 pm.... Fireworks at Stevenson Field (tickets a must for grandstand seating.. $3.00 pre-sale $5.00 at the gate)

Manhattan Beach:

Pool Party July 4, 2009.... 10:00 am-2:oo pm at Begg Pool...$ 5.00 to swim and have snacks

Hermosa Beach: No city planned activities but a lot of parties along the Strand

Redondo Beach:

Seaside Lagoon is the setting for a huge July 4th celebration The fun begins at 2:00 pm and continues until 10:00 The fireworks and Laser show starts at 9:00 click this link for more information and prices of tickets on the sand.

The Village Runner is sponsoring a 5K run .. starts at 8:00 at the Village Runner located at 1811 S. Catalina Ave., Redondo Beach, CA... Shoe donations for the Los Angeles Mission will be accepted.

Torrance:

Wilson Park is the place for the annual Old Fashioned Fourth of July Celebration The fun starts at 11:00 and finishes with a Fireworks show at 9:00pm

Palos Verdes Estates:

Old Fashioned Independence Celebration at Lunada Bay Elementary School begins at 9:45 am...

A bicycle parade and pie-eating contest are some of the activities

Rancho Palos Verdes:

34th annual Independence Celebration runs from 11:00 am -5:00 pm at The Rancho Palos Verdes City Hall off Hawthorne Blvd. There will be music, Arts & Crafts, rides, a pie-eating contest and more...

Westchester:

Don't miss the annual parade at Loyola and Manchester.. it starts at 11:00 am at Loyola Marymount University and continues along Loyola Blvd. to Westchester Park.

Call (310) 645-5151 for more info

Carson:

The Los Angales Galaxy Soccer Team will host a huge fireworks extravaganza at the Home Depot center after their soccer match earlier in the day... starts at 8:00 p.m

Lawndale:

July 3, 2009...This year is Lawndale's 50th Fireworks Anniversary... The day starts with live entertainment, food, crafts and face painting... The Fireworks show starts at 5:30 p.m. at Leuzinger High School.

Marina del Rey:

Catch the show from either Burton Chase Park or Fisherman's Village.. The show starts at 9:00 p.m.

**Rose Bowl photo : Courtesy of Joits at flickr.com

South Bay-Beach Cities: The Value War... What happens when the appraisal is faulty...

In May I wrote a post about the changes in the appraisal rules that were taking place as of May 1, 2009 for residential property appraisals. I know some of you thought I was exaggerating when I noted that we just might be seeing out of area appraisers using comps from North Redondo to value Manhattan Beach property.

I wasn't joking and 2 weeks ago I had it happen on a property I sold in Manhattan Beach. The appraiser was from Granada Hills and worked for a company out of Costa Mesa. He valued the property a $100,000 below the sale price... He used a similar home on a 7500 lot in east Manhattan, a home ineast Manhattan on a 4900 sq ft lot and a newer two on a lot townhome in North Redondo which he said was a single family home. He took a picture of the property but still didn't quite figure out that that it was not a 67 year old 915 sq ft house. He also used another home in North Redondo and a pending sale in Manhattan on a smaller lot that was very close to Aviation.

When was questioned about the value he stood by his appraisal and said he was very familiar with the South Bay and added homes in the Golden Hills across from Mira Costa that were on 25x100 lots as additional justification for his value. I think being familiar with an area should mean a bit more then having gone to one of the local beaches on a Sunday.

The problem of course is how this affects the buyer and seller. The buyers wound up having to resubmit their loan to a new lender because under the HVCC rules if the appraiser said he was right the lender could not order a full review appraisal. The buyer had to pay for a new appraisal. This time the lender requested that the third party company use a local appraiser... and the local appraiser brought in a price that was higher then the sale price.

The buyer is confused... how can this property be worth $xx the day they purchsed.. then only be worth $x and then suddenly be worth $xxx a week later. The buyers now believe there is something fishy going on with the lender to get such different values by so called "professionals" and they feel they are being screwed on the price. I can't say I blame them for their feelings. The want to use the first appraisal value and feel the second value was too high. The whole thing stinks.

The seller, on the other hand is relieved that the second appraisal was so much higher. However all is not over because now that the appraisal came in a full value it must go through a review appraisal. This was not required when it came in under the agreed upon price but it is required if it comes in at the price. I hope everyone is following this scenario...

Since May 1, 2009 when the new law was passed... at the behest of Andrew Cuomo... there have been numerous problems very similar to the one I noted above nationwide. Most of the issues are based on two things... first the price the buyer pays for an appraisal has gone up a lot.. in the past my buyers would have paid about $375 for an appraisal ... this one was almost $460. If there were questions about the appraisal, a review appraisal would have immediately been ordered at no cost to the buyer. The buyer now had to pay full price for a new appraisal... that just doesn't seem right.

The second issue is that the third party companies who were brokering appraisals sent them to appraisers who were willing to accept the least amount of money. This means that most of the appraisers used by these companies were new or possibly not quite as qualified. Local and /or experienced appraisers were no longer wanted because they expected to be paid for their knowledge and expertise. Now this is not to say that a newly licensed appraiser isn't competent... many are very good... but if they are coming from Riverside or Northeast Orange County then they just may not know the area.

The complaints have been so numerous from across the country that on June 25th, Representatives Childers (D-MS) and Miller (R-CA) introduced HR 3044, legislation that calls for an 18 month moratorium on HVCC. Whether or not the bill passes... and it looks as if it will... the issues has been addressed far quicker then I expected.

I believe there should be some changes. Lenders should not be able to influence appraised values. However lenders should be able to request that local appraisers be used. There is a big difference in price between North Redondo and East Manhattan. There is more then a $5000 difference in price between a 4900 sqft lot in east Manhattan and a 6600 sq ft lot in east Manhattan and there is an even bigger difference between a 5000 sq ft lot in North Redondo and a 6600 sq ft lot in east Manhattan Beach.

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold May 2009

Hermosa Beach... The Strand

Pending Sales appear to be continuing to increase in all the Beach Cities while actual closed sales dropped slightly everywhere with the exception of El Segundo. There is a lot happening in the local markets.

In El Segundo inventory is down while pending sales are about the same as last month and closed sales saw a big jump. This is the most activity El Segundo has had in a long time.

In Manhattan Beach inventory is down by a lot. .. from 220 homes and townhomes last month to 191 today. Pending sales are up by 11 sales over last month but closed sales were about the same as last month. Of interest in Manhattan Beach is that the median listing price shot up to $2,229,000 from about $1.9 for the last few months. I believe this is because most of the homes that have sold are under $2,000,000 which leaves a larger number of higher priced homes just sitting.

North Redondo is holding fairly steady in the amount of inventory, the number of pending sales and closed sales. Prices however were all over the place with the median price on homes down a lot and on townhomes and condos the exact opposite.. prices were up significantly over the previous months.

South Redondo saw inventory holding fairly steady. Pending sales for homes, townhomes and condos was almost the same as last month. The overall number of closed sales was about the same however closed sales for homes were down while those for townhomes and condos were up.

I think we can expect to see the numbers for all the beach cities to continue to fluctuate over the rest of the summer. Typically sales hold up fairly well until August when they begin to get very slow. We might see the pattern change a bit this year if interest rates continue to be low. There are still a lot of folks who are trying to decide if they should buy now with low rates or wait to see if prices take a bigger dip.

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold May 2009( click on graph to enlarge)

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold April 2009

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold March 2009

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold February 2009

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold January 2009

South Bay-Beach cities: Sold December 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold November 2008

South Bay-Beach cities: Sold October 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold September 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold August 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold July 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold June 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold May 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold April 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: SOLD March 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold February 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold January 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold November 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: October SOLD 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: SOLD September 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: August SOLD 2007

South Bay- Beach Cities: July Sold 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold June 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold May 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold March 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold February 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold January 2007

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot June 15, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Days on Market June 15, 2009

After a long cold winter and an insipid spring the Manhattan Beach real estate market seems to be picking up. A somewhat stable stock market, low interest rates and the return of jumbo loans by most of the major lenders have been factors. However the biggest factor seems to be lower prices... what a surprise!

While prices remain higher then many predicted they have dropped since last year. Inventory is dropping while pending sales are increasing. Since yesterday ( June 15, 2009) 8 more homes are pending for a total of 63 homes and 16 townhomes now in escrow. There are 156 homes for sale today compared to 164 yesterday. MLS data shows 9 townhomes and 20 single family homes closed escrow in May 2009. As of June 16, 2009 2 townhomes and 14 single family homes have closed escrow.

The big question is whether the rise in sales is an indication of the market beginning to stabilize or is this simply a wakeup call to sellers... lower your price and it will sell. A number of the recent sales were properties that had been on the market for well over 6 months and some for as long as 3 years. I'm guessing we will see further price declines, especially if rates start moving upward as inflation concerns become a factor for many investors.

There are a lot of factors that will influence where this market is headed over the balance of the year. If rates remain fairly stable and jumbo loans continue to be available then the market may well continue to move along. However if interest rates take a big jump in the next 2-3 months then I'm guessing the market will come to a screeching halt as buyers and sellers re-evaluate their positions.

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot June 15, 2009(click on graph to enlarge)

Manhattan Beach: Price Ranges June 15, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot May 11, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot April 14, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot March 14, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot February 10, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot January 19, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot December 4, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot November 8, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot October 13, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot September 15, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot August 19, 2008