For the last few years I have shared my thoughts about where I thought the market was headed each year... and this year is no exception.   Making predictions is easy, the difficult part is finding out close your ideas were to reality. 

Last year I thought the market would be very similar to the one in 2009 and I was  fairly accurate.  Truthfully I don't see much change in 2012.  I believe sales will continue to be slow but steady and prices will be flat with a few sub markets markets declining and a few showing increases in value.  . 

Nationally the economy appears to be growing.  The final numbers won't be available for a few more weeks.  Retailers and others are counting on a strong surge in spending in recent weeks  as an indication that we are moving forward.  California's unemployment rate dipped to 11.7% in recent weeks which is still very high but at least it is finally moving in the right direction.  Nationally the rate dropped to 8.6%.   Whether the trend continues down is another issue that all the Presidential  candidates will discuss at length I'm sure. 

Unfortunately there are issues that will affect our economy over the coming months.  Just as we were beginning to see a measure of stability in our country the European nations are showing signs of real problems.  China is also facing economic problems.  As our major creditor this could have an effect on our economic progress.    Like it or not we have become a global economy. 

The Government says the problems faced by the ongoing housing crisis are a high priority but new Federal regulations and guidelines add to the problems. What Bozo thought that adding a tax on mortgages for 10 years to fund the "payroll tax cut" for 2 months was a smart idea. All we need is more of that  brilliant thinking  to make sure the housing market continues to flounder.





Manhattan Beach-Beach Cities Real Estate...

The final sale numbers won't be in until next week but it looks as if  the number of  sales in Manhattan Beach and South Redondo  increased  while they decreased in Hermosa Beach, El Segundo and North Redondo. If the traffic at the local Malls was  any indication of how people were viewing the economy...  things are looking up.   The  Neptunian Womans Club Gift Wrap station at  The Manhattan Village Mall was busier than it has been for the last 4 years.

Our local real estate market saw an increase in the number of distressed ( foreclosure, short sales and pre-foreclosure) property sales in all  the Beach Cities.  Manhattan Beach had the least with about 10%  distressed  sales and North Redondo saw the highest with 21% of closed sales. 

In October the conforming loan amount officially declined from $729,750 to $625,500.  The change didn't take effect until October but lenders stopped making loans at the higher amount  around the end of August.  While the decrease didn't really affect Manhattan Beach it definitely had an effect on the other Beach Cities.   I don't believe it is a coincidence that prices on short sale townhomes in North Redondo dropped significantly at the same time.

I don't think we will see a major change in most of the South Bay real estate markets in 2012 from 2011. Prices will  bounce around as buyers remain cautious.   Manhattan Beach  home prices have been the most stable of all the Beach Cities.  I believe that trend will continue.  North Redondo will likely be plagued by short sales that will push the market down a bit.  Hermosa Beach, South Redondo and El Segundo may well see an uptick in short sales as lenders decide it might be more prudent to  clear their books rather than continuing to delay the inevitable. 

 If interest rates remain stable you could see an increase in entry level prices in Manhattan Beach.  This will hold true if more builders decide to take the plunge and start buying lots.  I know of  a number of agents who are actively looking for buildable lots and fixers in Manhattan Beach.    I don't  think you will see much new construction  in the other Beach Cities  for awhile although there have been a few new projects in North Redondo.

 Obtaining a new loan continues to be difficult.  property prices in the South bay-beach Cities remain high despite the declines in value.  many entry level properties will require Jumbo loans with the drop in conforming loan rates.  New FHA limits will help buyers  but many of their rules discourage folks who don't want to pay the upfront fees required by FHA..  Refinancing your home can take months.  Appraisal issues haven't gone away as out of area appraisers are used by many lenders even though there have been changes to the original law.


While overall Manhattan Beach and the Beach Cities have had fewer problems than many other communities in LA County we are at the mercy of  conditions we have no control over. Many homeowners have been holding on with a tenuous grip as the economy has remained precarious for  longer than expected.   Some good news in the economy would be a welcome sign for everyone.

Farmer's Market... El Segundo


November sale numbers were similar to those of October for most of the Beach Cities.  While the number of sales was relatively consistent prices were all over the map. The hardest hit city in the Beach Cities was North Redondo.   After months of not much action, North Redondo got clobbered by short sales  beginning in September.  Sellers dropped prices drastically hoping to finally get the attention of lenders who didn't appear to be in any rush to approve a sale.  


The tactic seemed to work... There are currently 61 pending sales in North Redondo with inventory at 79 properties for sale.  The final figures for December 2011 will be out next week but so far lenders may be cooperating as they also would like to see a number of these properties close escrow soon rather than later.

Th rest of the Beach Cities... El Segundo, Hermosa, Manhattan and South Redondo are seeing sale  numbers holding at consistent levels and prices flat or moving downward  slightly. 


South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold November 2011
 

Riviera Village... Redondo Beach


As the economy continues to slip and slide it's no real surprise that housing is still in a state of flux.  October is always a slow month in the Beach Cities.  With the exception of  El Segundo, the number of sale in each South Bay-Beach City  was very similar to the numbers from October 2010.  Prices however  were bouncing around like crazy with North Redondo showing the biggest declines and Manhattan Beach showing an increase.

About the time it seems  the housing market in the Beach Cities is beginning to stabilize something happens to send it back down the road.  This month the culprit maybe be a combination of a lower conforming loan limit ($625,500 down from $729,750) combined with an increase in the  number of short sales.  North Redondo has been hit the hardest by short sales that are pushing down home prices.   Older townhomes  are really taking a beating on price as owners try to get the bank to approve a short sale. 

Lower prices and low interest rates are making North Redondo a hot market right now. Buyers are snapping up units at prices not seen a long time.  Multiple offers on townhomes in North Redondo are becoming the norm rather than the exception.  November could be a very interesting month....


South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold October 2011

Fun Christmas/ Holiday  events in the South Bay Beach Cities....December 2011 Schedule by City

It's that special time of year..... we put lights on houses .... ornaments on trees..... and little kids know that magic is real. I love the Holiday Season..... Many homeowners in Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach and El Segundo do some fabulous light displays and Christmas/Holiday decorations. El Segundo and other cities have whole neighborhoods of homes that bring visitors from near and far to see the wonderful winter wonderland displays.

While Santa wants to visit every house in the Beach Cities... like many of us today... budget issues are making it harder this year... Santa won't be able  take his sleigh through Redondo Beach  but you can  visit with him at Anderson Park and Alta Vista Park.  There are  many celebrations in the Beach Cities including  Tree lighting and Pier lighting in our communities. Don't miss the El Segundo Holiday Parade... it's just so much fun.

Our little Beach towns have retained their unique Holiday traditions. If you want to know what's happening in the Beach Cities during the Holidays... just scroll down and you will find the major activities for Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach and El Segundo. It's a wonderful time of year... Oh and be sure to stop by the Gift Wrap in the Manhattan Mall... I'll be there .. so stop and say Hello..

Manhattan Beach:


                                             

December 2,3,4, 2011  The Sandpipers will hold their annual Holiday Home Tour in Manhattan Beach and Hermosa Beach. The tour runs from 10:00 am to 5:00 pm.  For information call (310) 374-1748



 Saturday December 10- Thursday December 24... . The Neptunian Woman's Club will be Gift Wrapping at the Mall... proceeds go toward scholarships for Manhattan Beach students and the fees are tax deductible. Psssst..... We will wrap any gift ... not just ones bought at a Mall store.... See you at the Mall.....




Sunday December 11, 2011... Manhattan Beach Fireworks Show .... At the Pier...Entertainment starts at 4:00..

Santa starts his rounds  November 28, 2011.. and he will be looking for good little girls and boys until December 15, 2011..   Santa starts his route every evening at 5:30 with the exception of December 12, 2011 when the float is parked in Manhattan Village  from 6:00- 7:00 pm.

Nov. 28:  Starts at 19th St and Ardmore Avenue, Pacific, Manhattan Beach Boulevard, and Valley Drive.

Nov 29:  Starts at Blanche Road and 24th Street, 45th St, Ocean Drive, Marine Avenue, Grandview Avenue and the western City limits..

Nov.30:  Starts at Blanche  and 26th St, Rosecrans Avenue, Pacific Avenue, Marine Avenue, Bell Avenue.
.
Dec. 1: Starts at 23rd St and Wendy Way, Marine Ave.,   Manhattan Beach Blvd,  Redondo Avenue and Aviation Blvd,.

Dec. 2: Starts at Marine and John Street.  Ardmore Avenue, Sepulveda Blvd.,Manhattan Beach Blvd., Pacific Avenue.


Dec. 5:  Starts at  Second and Peck... Second Street, Aviation Blvd, Artesia Blvd and Peck  Avenue.


Dec. 6: Starts at Second Street and Rowell Avenue. Second Street, Meadows Avenue,  Artesia Blvd. and  Sepulveda.  

Dec. 7: Starts at Dianthus and 11th Street.  Manhattan Beach Blvd., Sepulveda Blvd., southern city limits and Ardmore Avenue.

Dec. 8:  Starts at 6th and Meadows. Eighth Street, Aviation Blvd., Second Street, Sepulveda Blvd..

Dec. 9: Starts at 8th Street and Johnson Avenue.  Manhattan Beach Blvd, Aviation Blvd, Eighth Street and Sepulveda Blvd.


Dec. 12: From 6 to 7 p.m., the Santa float will be parked at the main pool of Manhattan Village. Starts at 7 p.m. at 18th Street and Redondo Avenue.  Marine Avenue, Redondo Avenue,Manhattan Beach Blvd., and Rowell Avenue.

Dec. 13: Starts at Meadows Avenue and Manhattan Beach Blvd. Marine Avenue, Rowell Avenue, Manhattan Beach Blvd. and Sepulveda Blvd..

Dec. 14: Starts at Pacific Avenue and Valley Drive. Rosecrans Avenue, Sepulveda Blvd. Ardmore Avenue and Pacific Avenue

Dec. 15: Starts at Ingleside Avenue and First Street. Marine Avenue, Grandview Avenue, 24th St, 25th St, Ardmore Avenue, southern and western city limits


Wednesday December 21, 2011...  The Lighting of the Chanukah Menorah ... Manhattan Beach Mall.... 5:30 pm




 Photos with Santa:  Manhattan Beach Mall
Santa arrives Nov. 25 and stays until Dec. 24.
Mon to Sat: 11a.m. to 8 p.m
Sun:  12:00 to 6 p.m.,
The Web site above has a list of packages and prices.





Saturday evening... December 24, 2011... T'was the night before Christmas and all through the house.... You know the rest...





Hermosa Beach:

December 2,3,4,  2011  The Sandpipers will hold their annual Holiday Home Tour in Manhattan Beach and Hermosa Beach. The tour runs from 10:00 am to 5:00 pm . For information call (310) 374-1748














Thursday December 1, 2011...  Hermosa Beach Tree Lighting... 6:00 at the Pier

Saturday December 10, 2011  Second Annual Snowfest.....10:00 am - 9:00 pm
The Snowfest will feature the tree lighting, music, and the arrival of Santa.


In Hermosa Beach Santa  will visit on at The Gum Tree at 238 Pier Avenue  on December 2, 2011 from 5-9 pm and on December 5, 2011 from 10:00 am - 4:00 pm...

Santa and his helpers will visit Hermosa neighborhoods on  Wednesday December 7 and Dec. 14. The sleigh will spend 20 minutes at each stop, where Santa will take photos with residents waiting to meet him.

Santa's Schedule:

December 7, 2011

6 to 6:20 p.m.: 18th Street and Valley Park Avenue.

6:30 to 6:50 p.m.: 25th Street and Silverstrand Avenue.

7 to 7:20 p.m.: 30th Street and Morningside Drive.

7:30 to 7:50 p.m.: 23rd/24th streets and Hermosa Avenue (west side of the street).

8 to 8:20 p.m.: 500 block of 11th Street.

8:30 to 8:50 p.m.: Pier Plaza.

December 14, 2011 

6 to 6:20 p.m.: 2000 block of Hillcrest Avenue.

6:30 to 6:50 p.m.: 1100 block of 19th Street.

7 to 7:20 p.m.: Golden Street between 15th and 16th streets.

7:30 to 7:50 p.m.: 1100 block of Eighth Street.

8 to 8:20 p.m.: Fifth Street and Hermosa Avenue.

8:30 to 8:50 p.m.: Pier Plaza.

Saturday  evening... December 24, 2011... T'was the night before Christmas and all through the house.... You know the rest...

December 26, 2011:  Lighting of the Chanukah Menorah  Greenwood Park.. (Windmill at Aviation/PCH ) 6:00 pm

Saturday Dec 10, 2011...  Alta Vista Park from 4-8 pm

Saturday Dec 17, 2011... Anderson Park from 4-8 pm


Tuesday December 20, 2011... Hanukkah... The lighting of the Menorah... Civic Center415 Diamond Ave. 5:30 pm

 Saturday  December 24, 2011 ... T'was the night before Christmas and all through the house.... You know the rest...

 
Santa's schedule:

Dec. 12: West end of the city east to Loma Vista Street.
Dec. 13: Loma Vista Street east to Main Street.

Dec. 14: Main Street east to Sheldon Street.

Dec. 15: Sheldon Street east to Center Street.

Dec. 16: Center Street east to Sepulveda Street.

In case of rain, a make-up day is scheduled for Dec. 19.  For an updated schedule, visit http://www.elsegundopoa.org/.


Thursday Dec. 22, 2011: Lighting of the Chanukah Menorah... 5:30 City Hall



Saturday Dec. 24, 2011: Chanukah on Ice  at 6:15 pm Toyota Sports Center 555 N. Nash St

Saturday  December 24, 2011 ... T'was the night before Christmas and all through the house.... You know the rest



If you have an event you would like to add... just e-mail me and I will add it to the list....

Happy Thanksgiving

The last few years have been hard ones ... We are constantly bombarded with bad economic news, terrorist plots and other events that seem to jump at us on a daily basis. Thanksgiving is a time to take a break and think about all the good things we have in our lives. These are some of the things I am thankful for in my life.....