Ercoles.. the oldest restaurant in Manhattan Beach

As I noted a few months ago when I posted the First Quarter Sales figures for Manhattan Beach this will become a regular feature every quarter. There is a lot of information about our local real estate market that these numbers provide. Although I'll admit that over the last few days I'm seeing numbers everywhere and even find myself dreaming about median price and price per square foot.

We all know that statistics can take on a life of their own. When viewing our local Manhattan Beach real estate market , the numbers tell their own tale. If you look at the numbers on a month by month basis things look pretty bad. While still dismal, when viewed over time, a pattern begins to emerge showing that the number of sales, while significantly lower then those in 2007, have been fairly stable over the last two years.

The volume of sales is down about 40% from 2007 and roughly 16% from 2008 for the first part of the year. The kicker in the deck is prices. Since the begining of the year home prices have dropped about 22% compared to the same period last year. There were 112 homes that sold from January to June 2009. 92 of them had at least one price reduction before finding a buyer, 8 were sold over the list price and 13 appear to have sold at the listed price.

There is more going on now then these number show. Currently there are 150 homes for sale in Manhattan Beach. Inventory has dropped dramatically because homes are selling.... the big question is what is selling. There are 81 properties pending...67 homes and 14 townhomes. The median asking price for homes that are in escrow is $1,575,000 and for townhomes it is $1,194,000. The median sold price for homes in June was $ 1, 402,500 and $1,217,000 for townhomes.. But.... the median list price for homes that are for sale is $2,349,500 and $1,364,000 for townhomes.

Herein lies the problem with our current market. Of the 150 homes for sale only 65( less then half) are priced under $2,000,000. There is very little demand for homes priced over $2,000,000 for a number of reasons, but mainly because of financing. While we have our share of buyers with some big bucks... they are not in the majority. Most buyers looking in Manhattan Beach today have 30%-50% cash needed for a down payment on a home under $2.5 but they still need some type of bank financing. There are lenders offering loans over $1.5 but most lenders really don't want to make loans over that number. So I'm guessing that one of two things will happpen... either these higher end homes will be taken off the market or you are going to see some very hefty price reductions in the future. I also think you are going to see an increase in owner financing to bridge the gap.

Manhattan Beach: Sold January-June 2007-2009(click on graph to enlarge)

Manhattan Beach: Sold April-June 2007-2009

Manhattan Beach: Sold West of Sepulveda January-June 2007-2009

Manhattan Beach: Sold West of Sepulveda April-June 2007-2009

Manhattan Beach: Sold East of Sepulveda January-June 2007-2009  

Manhattan Beach: Sold East of Sepulveda April-June 2007-2009

***All Data is based on MLS information .. Sales not on MLS are not included... some charts have been adjusted to reflect an additional posted sale for June 2009