Manhattan Beach: Days on Market June 15, 2009

After a long cold winter and an insipid spring the Manhattan Beach real estate market seems to be picking up. A somewhat stable stock market, low interest rates and the return of jumbo loans by most of the major lenders have been factors. However the biggest factor seems to be lower prices... what a surprise!

While prices remain higher then many predicted they have dropped since last year. Inventory is dropping while pending sales are increasing. Since yesterday ( June 15, 2009) 8 more homes are pending for a total of 63 homes and 16 townhomes now in escrow. There are 156 homes for sale today compared to 164 yesterday. MLS data shows 9 townhomes and 20 single family homes closed escrow in May 2009. As of June 16, 2009 2 townhomes and 14 single family homes have closed escrow.

The big question is whether the rise in sales is an indication of the market beginning to stabilize or is this simply a wakeup call to sellers... lower your price and it will sell. A number of the recent sales were properties that had been on the market for well over 6 months and some for as long as 3 years. I'm guessing we will see further price declines, especially if rates start moving upward as inflation concerns become a factor for many investors.

There are a lot of factors that will influence where this market is headed over the balance of the year. If rates remain fairly stable and jumbo loans continue to be available then the market may well continue to move along. However if interest rates take a big jump in the next 2-3 months then I'm guessing the market will come to a screeching halt as buyers and sellers re-evaluate their positions.

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot June 15, 2009(click on graph to enlarge)

Manhattan Beach: Price Ranges June 15, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot May 11, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot April 14, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot March 14, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot February 10, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot January 19, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot December 4, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot November 8, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot October 13, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot September 15, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot August 19, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot July 17, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot July 7, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot June 20, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot June 5, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot April 29, 2008

Manhattan Beach:Market Snapshot April 14, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot March 31, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot March 13, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot February 26, 2008

Manhattan Beach, CA: Market Snapshot February 11, 2008

*There are a few more sales and pending sales not on the MLS that are not included in the graphs.

Manhattan Beach... Days on Market May 2009

April and May continue to see better sales volume numbers then January-March. The middle and entry levels seem to be be moving... slowly perhaps but they are moving. There are 48 pending home sales, 11 are priced under $1million... 12 of the sales are priced from $1.0- $1.6... 16 are priced at $1.6-$2.0... 7 are between $2.0-$3.0...while 2 are over $3 million. There are 15 pending townhome sales of which 7 are under $1.0...6 are $1.0-$2.0 and 2 are over the $2 million mark.

While the number of homes over $2 million for sale has increased there isn't a lot of movement in the upper price levels. There are 87 homes for sale priced at $2 million plus. At least 24 of those have been listed for 200+ days. There are a number of reasons of course.

The economy is still in a lot of trouble and a lot of folks who had money last year may not be quite as flush this year. It's still tough to find a loan over $1.5 million. You may have a large down payment but if you are not a member of the Private Bank crowd you will find financing tough to obtain and expensive. Also, as with all price levels, many of these homes are simply priced higher then they should be if they want to sell. Finally, a number of these homeowners are not in dire straits and don't have to sell. They will sell if they get their price... if that doesn't happen... they will take the home off the market until the market changes.

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot May 2009(click on graph to enlarge)

Manhattan Beach: Price Ranges May 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot April 14, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot March 14, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot February 10, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot January 19, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot December 4, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot November 8, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot October 13, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot September 15, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot August 19, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot July 17, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot July 7, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot June 20, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot June 5, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot April 29, 2008

Manhattan Beach:Market Snapshot April 14, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot March 31, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot March 13, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot February 26, 2008

Manhattan Beach, CA: Market Snapshot February 11, 2008

*There are a few more sales and pending sales not on the MLS that are not included in the graphs.

Days on Market: April 2009

According to the MLS, March saw 23 homes and 5 townhomes close escrow*. Currently there are 178 homes and 44 townhomes for sale in Manhattan Beach. There are 39 homes and 11 townhomes in escrow.

The Sand section seems to be the main point of activity this month with 15 homes and 8 townhomes going in escrow. 9 of the 15 homes are priced over $2 million and 7 of the sales went into escrow after April 1, 2009. The big question will be how many actually close escrow. As buyers get smarter about what they need to have in order to qualify and as more loan programs open up I suspect we will see a larger percentage of pending sales close escrow.

At the other end of the spectrum there are 10 properties in escrow under $1 million. A number of these homes sat on the market for months before finally going into escrow. You can expect to see more price reductions and homes selling in the $600,000 range in east Manhattan. A home on the corner of Marine and Aviation closed escrow at $480,000 in March.

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot April 14, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Price Ranges April 14, 2009

 Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot March 14, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot February 10, 2009

 Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot January 19, 2009

 Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot December 4, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot November 8, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot October 13, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot September 15, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot August 19, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot July 17, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot July 7, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot June 20, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot June 5, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot April 29, 2008

Manhattan Beach:Market Snapshot April 14, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot March 31, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot March 13, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot February 26, 2008

Manhattan Beach, CA: Market Snapshot February 11, 2008

*There are a few more sales and pending sales not on the MLS that are not included in the graphs.

Walk Street East of Highland

After posting on Manhattan Beach home prices for First Quarter Sales from 2007-2009, I was asked about the price per sq ft for the same time frame. I'm not overly crazy about price per square foot as a reliable measure of value as it is so easily skewed depending on whether a number of big or small homes sell during a particular time period. However I will add it to the graph in the future when I post information for quarterly values. For now I'm posting the information separately.

There are three graphs....All of Manhattan Beach PPSF first quarter sales from 2007-2009... West of Sepulveda (WOS) PPFS 2007-2009 and East of Sepulveda(EOS)PPFS 2007-2009. As with median prices the biggest changes in home prices are for homes west of Sepulveda. Manhattan Beach: First

Quarter PPSF 2007-2009

Manhattan Beach: WOS First Quarter PPSF 2007-2009

Manhattan Beach: EOS First Quarter PPSF 2007-2009

Polliwog Park.. Manhattan Beach

Last week I was asked to provide year over year information for 2009 first quarter home sales in all areas of Manhattan Beach. It was not a big surprise that the volume of 2007 sales was significantly higher then either 2008 or 2009. Nor was it a surprise to see that 2009 prices compared to 2008 prices are down by about 24%. However there were a couple of surprises that I didn't expect.

Surprise #1... The median price for 2008 was higher then the 2007 figure by about 8%. Surprise # 2...The 2007 median price and the 2009 price difference shows a 12% decline ... Surprise # 3... The number of sales in the 1st quarter of 2008 compared to 2009 is only off by 10 sales.

I broke the numbers out for West of Sepulveda and East of Sepulveda. The picture that emerges is very interesting. While West of Sepulveda seems to have been hit far harder then East of Sepulveda. While the volume east of Sepulveda is down prices have actually held fairly steady. West of Sepulved however got trounced in 2009. Median prices have taken a nose dive compared to 2007 and 2008.

Inventory is up west of Sepulveda. There has been a rather large increase in the upper end homes over $4,000,000 and not many sales. There are 143 homes and 28 townhomes for sale west of Sepulveda. In east Manhattan there are 47 homes and 20 townhomes on the market. That's a very big difference in inventory.

March saw 21 sales per the MLS... 16 homes and 5 townhomes. Pending numbers look a bit better with 43 properties in escrow... 33 of them in March. 4 homes and 2 townhomes have closed escrow since April 1, 2009 . While these numbers are better then February, sales are still slow. It will take a little time to see if the return of Jumbo loans at lower fixed rates makes a difference in sales.

UPDATE: 04/06/2009

Using the above changes I'm now showing 28 sales for WOS for Quarter 1....

The 28 amended sales and the 9 other items not equal the 41 sales noted on the MLS..