Making a housing decision based on Doom and Gloom could wind up costing consumers who want to buy a home a lot of money.   Most people think they can time the market and buy at the bottom. A number of potential buyers are afraid that if they buy now the housing market will drop drastically and they will lose money. The fact is that a lot of buyers will wind up missing the point when the market begins to change. They will miss it because they are so caught up in bad news that they will not be able to tell when the market changes and take advantage of the change.

 I dont know when the market will reach bottom. I do know that once it reaches that point it will stay relatively flat for a time before cautiously moving upward. I know this because this is how the Manhattan Beach-Beach Cities and the general California real estate market has behaved for many years. I know that the flat time will be a good time to buy. I also know that bar a massive recession or other disaster we may see the market begin to level off within the next 6-8 months. A number of buyers will miss that period because they dont understand that a flat market after a down market is the bottom. Too many prospective purchasers keep waiting for the bottom long after the bottom has been reached and the market begins to move upward.

In a recent Daily Breeze article on California foreclosures the article noted that most of the foreclosures in the South Bay were in Carson and Gardena and other areas to the east. The article pointed out that the rate of foreclosures in the South Bay was half what it was last year¦ Hmmm¦now that would have been an interesting headline but it wasnt the one chosen by the paper. Nope the headline was about the large number of foreclosures in CA. Im betting a number of potential buyers caught the headlines and missed most of the report. Negativity sells newspapers. But negativity can also cost you money.  Most of the people who are trying to time the market will fail miserably. A number of those who are the most adamant about waiting for prices to drop are the same people who missed the late 90s and early 2000 market. They are going to miss this one too.

If you are thinking about buying a home then you need to find out what is really happening in the market where you want to buy. Do you want to know about the number of foreclosures in your zip code¦ check out Foreclosures: How Does your Zip code Fare . This tells you the number of foreclosed properties in your zip code. There are 2 in Manhattan Beach, 3 in Hermosa Beach, 7 in North Redondo, 9 in South Redondo and 1 in El Segundo. If you are waiting to buy a foreclosed property in the Beach Cities¦ it could be a long wait. Its tough for prospective buyers in this market. The media cries that the entire state of California is in foreclosure but most of the highly desirable local markets just dont seem to reflect that data. Buyers still dont understand that when the headlines talk about massive foreclosures they are in Palmdale and Lancaster not Manhattan, Hermosa or Redondo. Prices have gone down but they havent reached meltdown¦. and are not headed in that direction.

 Real estate agents get blamed for spinning if they dont talk about the terrible real estate market in the Beach Cities. The truth is the market isnt what it was four years ago but it isnt awful. Since April 1, 2008 20 homes and 6 townhomes have gone into escrow in Manhattan Beach. Thats a bit more then one per day. This is not a bad market.. not great¦ but definitely not bad. We need to stop comparing the current market to that of a few years ago. More homes sold in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006 then at any other time in the last 50 years. We won’t see those numbers again.

It’s time to look at the current market. If you are thinking of buying make your judgement on what you need to do personally and on what you see happening in this market… not the one in 2004. Buy something you can afford and plan to stay there for awhile… 5-7 years at a minimum. Understand that you are buying a place to live not a mutual fund. If you plan smart and buy a property that makes sense the chances are very good that you will have a nice place to live and maybe make a little money along the way.